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Brexit 10 years later
On June 23, 2016, Britons voted 52% to 48% to leave the European Union. The pound tanked, the FTSE 100 tumbled, and Prime Minister David Cameron resigned. After Theresa May failed to pass a Brexit deal three times and stepped down, Boris Johnson delivered Brexit in 2020. The campaign promised to "take back control" of immigration, free up NHS money, and forge global trade deals. A decade later, Brexit still looms. The UK economy has seen no post-Brexit boost; Stanford’s Nicholas Bloom estimates GDP was reduced by 6-8% by 2025 due to uncertainty, reduced demand, and resource misallocation. Immigration changed: net migration from the EU turned negative in 2022, while non-EU migration surged due to labor shortages, international students, and emergency visa schemes. Sterling crashed after the vote and remains about 10% below pre-referendum highs against the euro and dollar, making imports more expensive and impacting the cost of living. The FTSE 100, with global revenue, outperformed the domestic FTSE 250, but neither kept pace with US equity gains. The UK stock market is little changed from ten years ago. The EU remains the UK’s largest trade partner, accounting for 41% of exports and 50% of imports in 2025, under a 2021 tariff-free deal. Politically, no prime minister has lasted longer than three years since the referendum; one served just 49 days. Prime Minister Keir Starmer resigned on Monday amid a leadership challenge from Andy Burnham, paving the way for the seventh prime minister in a decade.